World intelligent chip short stock

Since the end of March 2021, the global core shortage has broken out.

The global shortage of automotive chips has affected almost all car companies' production schedules. Even if there is no suspension of production, for some auto brands with new product launch plans, the launch of the launch is basically shelved.

At present, car companies that have publicly announced production cuts and discontinuations include Volvo, Scania, Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, NIO, Ford, Daimler, General Motors, Renault Group and many other car companies. Companies that have adjusted their production plans due to the shortage of semiconductor chips are sweeping the world.

The supply of capacitors and resistors is cut off, and replacements can be found soon. But once there is a shortage of computer chips, there is no substitute. To replace a computing chip in an embedded system, everything from software development to subsequent testing needs to be redone. From production to testing to delivery of an automotive chip, it takes at least half a year.

According to the prediction of the China Automobile Association, the government has successively promulgated a number of policies aimed at promoting consumption and reducing the burden on enterprises, which will support the continued recovery of the consumer market. However, the recent sharp rise in the price of raw materials will significantly increase the cost pressure on manufacturing companies. At the same time, the tight supply of chips and other components will continue to affect the production rhythm of companies.

The predicament of lack of "core" has been deposited for a long time

Let’s review, why is the demand for automotive chips suddenly in short supply?

First of all, the production capacity of global semiconductor manufacturing lines is tight. From the overall situation of the semiconductor industry, tight supply and demand have actually appeared in recent years. With the continuous upgrading of technologies in various industries, the demand for chip products is also increasing. With the technical application of new energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles, the application of chips has increased exponentially compared with traditional fuel vehicles. At the same time, 5G, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things are also major growth points for chips.

Second, due to force majeure, the production capacity of chips has been reduced in the short term. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the second wave of epidemics in Europe and Southeast Asia, coupled with the earthquake in Japan, snowstorms in the United States and other force majeure factors, caused these local semiconductor manufacturers to reduce and suspend production.

Third, since the second half of last year, overdue stocks of consumer electronics companies have increased the tension of automotive chips. Beginning in the fourth quarter of last year, when domestic mobile phone companies began to increase their reserves, companies in various industries followed suit and increased chip reserves, making it difficult for chip suppliers to quickly switch production capacity to automotive chips.

Information such as the current supply gap and recovery cycle of automotive chips is not clear. Global automotive and component companies are not optimistic about expectations. Coupled with media propaganda, the automotive industry panic hoards, exacerbating the shortage of chips.

On March 19, a fire broke out in the Naka factory, the main factory of Renesas Electronics, a global automotive chip manufacturer, which caused the shutdown of the 12-inch factory producing advanced products.

2021 has entered the scorching summer, but the shortage of chips is still stinging the sensitive nerves of the market like a cold winter.

The shortage of automotive chips is a problem of imbalance between supply and demand in the market, which cannot be solved by non-market means in a short period of time.

The global semiconductor giant Renesas Electronics said that the global shortage of automotive chip supply may continue until the second half of 2021. It can be judged that China's automobile production and sales are affected by chips. In 2021, there will be a trend of tightness and slackness. Automobile production and sales in the second half of the year will increase as the shortage of chips is alleviated.

Having said that, since the reform and opening up, my country's industrial and technological standards have been advancing by leaps and bounds, and now, is it really only "wait, rely, and demand" to face the chip problem? That may not be true.

Self-help of domestic car companies and Internet giants

The most urgent thing is car chips. Among the few domestic chip manufacturers, there are still many outstanding ones leading the development of the industry. At the beginning of this month, there were rumors in the market that the self-developed chip project of Xiaopeng Motors, one of the "Three Musketeers" of new car-making forces, had been launched for several months, and before that, Weilai had already confirmed that it would develop its own chips.

In addition, BYD, which has established its own IGBT R&D team since 2005, is currently the only domestic car company with a complete IGBT industrial chain, involving batteries, electric drives, electronic control systems and chips, and has its own chip company . It is currently the only domestic company that can provide IGBTs for new energy vehicles. At present, the total installed vehicle volume has exceeded 7 million, achieving zero breakthrough in the localization of automotive-grade MCUs.

Previously, the media stated that BYD could not only be self-sufficient in chips, but also supply in large quantities, so it is not affected by the shortage of chip supply. It sounds very encouraging to the people. As of press time, BYD officials have not responded positively to this.

Since 2021, many Internet giants have also entered into self-developed chips. In March, Baidu's Kunlun chip business completed independent financing, and its post-investment valuation reached 13 billion yuan; Internet head rookie ByteDance announced its entry into the chip industry; at the end of the month, Xiaomi released a new generation of self-developed image processing chip Surging C1.

The chip field that attracts everyone to flock to is enough to see its popularity. This car chip shortage incident is not only a wake-up call to the domestic auto business chain, but also a further alarm for logistics companies that have car purchase needs.

Rising car prices and delays in delivery?

Domestically, it is possible to order a car under the order, but the delivery time cannot be guaranteed. That is to say, originally it only took 25 days to pick up the truck. Due to the shortage of chips, the date of picking up the truck will be postponed to 40 days or even longer.

In this regard, the logistics companies that originally planned to purchase their own vehicles said that if the delivery schedule is boundless, they will consider replacing other capacity on the established vehicle brand, or find social capacity to make up for it.

Affected by the supply of some overseas purchased chips, many OEMs reported that the production rhythm, delivery and delivery schedule of many cars have been affected to varying degrees. The delivery schedule has been postponed, and vehicle resources are relatively tight. Full-size car reservations and high-rated users have become the priority protection objects at present.

FAW insiders said that the current engine electronic control system and AMT gearbox operating system will use chips. In addition to the engine and gearbox, the chip also involves the National VI particle sensor. This year's raw materials have risen a lot, and production is running at full load, but it has not yet affected production.

Taking into account the complexity of the types of commercial vehicles, there will be other factors influencing the purchase of vehicles by enterprises.

From the perspective of inventory, the company is in the form of sales and production. Therefore, inventory and demand are matched, and they are at a normal inventory level. At present, dealers have a lot of car inventory. If the dealers of the vehicle models demanded by logistics companies have them, the delivery will be very fast. Otherwise, they will wait in line. However, every transition period will have the problem of inventory digestion, and companies need to overcome the inventory problem and formulate an inventory digestion plan.

According to sources close to the national ministries and commissions, due to the insufficient supply of chips, the National V products are given a 3-6 month sales transition period. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the time for the implementation of National VI emissions, and the time for the next National V product sales transition period will be announced soon.